Modelling species distribution
Project 1 | Potential distribution of biocontrol agents of Parkinsonia aculeata
In this project, we are using the MaxEnt model to generate projected distributions of Eueupithecia cisplatensis and E. vollonoides, the biocontrol agents of the neotropical shrub/tree P. aculeata. The development of distribution models for weed biological control agents is challenging due to the lack of ecological and biogeographic information of the candidate agents, Therefore, we would undertake a model tuning experiment to optimise the predictive accuracy of the MaxEnt models. Omission rate and fraction predictive area would be used as optimality criteria. We hope that our approach could serve as a useful template for other systems with a similar paucity of information on the ecology and biogeography of the focal species, but where projections of potential distribution may be desirable.
Collaborators
Future project | Modelling vulnerability of protected areas to invasion
Protected areas are important for the conservations of biodiversity and provisioning of vital ecosystem services. However, the ecological integrity of protected areas globally is threatened by alien plant invaders and climate change. The invasive creeper, Mikania micrantha is one such plant that is already invaded protected areas in northeast, east and south India representing different climatic conditions. Yet, very little is known about its ecological impact and adaptive strategies. Forecasting the future distribution of this invasive weed will help in determining the vulnerability of these protected areas to its invasion. However, genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity often influence species distribution. The proposed project aims to incorporate plasticity and local adaptation in niche model to generate a realistic forecast of its distribution in future climate. The findings of this project could be utilised for devising an effective management strategy for this invasive plant. Following is the proposed scheme of research:
